Articles of Interest

There have been several articles of late that have grabbed our attention or garnered significant national press that we thought we would take the time to share this week.  Please see a brief intro to each and a link to access below . . .

Why I am Leaving Goldman Sachs
Now former Goldman Sachs employee Greg Smith wrote an op-ed piece for the New York Times last week on how watching clients' interests being routinely and systematically ignored for the betterment of the firm led to him feeling like the only ethical option was to resign.  The piece has been much publicized as an indictment against Goldman and the entire wirehouse business model in general.

Really Big Claims Based on Too Little Data
TAAG Blog favorite Carl Richards posted this New York Times Bucks blog recently.  Carl takes on the dangers of looking at data over the short term and building conclusions based upon not enough information.  He also does an excellent job of explaining why, ultimately, the data supports a low cost, globally diverse portfolio over finding the best fund manager du jour every time.

The Real Cost of Paper Savings Bonds
This was a post from a guest blogger to the FPA All Things Financial Planning Blog that Chip contirbutes to monthly on the potential risks of hanging onto physical, paper savings bonds and the electronic deposit program the Treasury has established to make tracking and redeeming your bonds safe and simple. 

Have a great week!

The Asset Advisory Group
Website / E-mail

Small Tasks, Big Impact

We’ve had a slew of things come across our desks recently that are little things that can be done that can go a long way in protecting our assets & our families in various ways. We wanted to share those briefly with you in this week’s blog.

Next of Kin Registry

For our readers who reside in the State of Ohio, the BMV has created a next-of-kin registry to help expedite emergency notification. The registry is a database of emergency contacts for anyone with a valid driver’s license or state identification card. It enables law enforcement, paramedics and other agencies to find a victim's relatives or emergency contact immediately.
All you need to do to register is click here, fill in the information requested and then list the names of those you would want to be contacted in an emergency. It takes just minutes and could save valuable time in letting someone know of any emergency or making crucial medical decisions at a critical time.
At this time, with nearly 8 million registered motorists in the state, only 150,000 have registered for this service. For your sake and the sake of your family and friends, take a few minutes and go sign up today.

Social Security Statements

For those of you who really look forward to getting that green and white social security statement in the mail each year, I have some bad news for you. The Social Security Administration announced last week that they will no longer be sending them out. The good news? This move will save $30 million this year and $60 million in 2012. Provided you’ve been in the workforce for 10 years, you can still generate a report using the retirement estimator available on the Social Security Administration’s website or by simply clicking here.

Another Reason to Check that Credit

Many of you have likely received some sort of e-mail from an organization you’ve done business with or read in the news about the massive security breach at Epsilon, a Texas online marketing company that sends out more than 40 billion e-mails per year on behalf of their clients. According to a SecurityWeek article, the data belonged to a long list of companies that included Best Buy, Brookstone, Capital One, Citi, Home Shopping Network, JPMorgan Chase, Kroger, LL Bean, Marriott Rewards, Ritz-Carlton Rewards, TiVo & US Bank.

The information compromised is believed to be limited to names and e-mail addresses only, but do what you can to be vigilant with any suspicious looking e-mails you may receive in the near future. Also, be sure to visit AnnualCreditReport.com, the government sanctioned website where you can pull a credit report from each of the three major bureaus free of charge one time per year.

One More from the BMV

It was brought to our attention recently by an estate-planning attorney we work with that the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles does not accept powers of attorney from outside sources. They only accept their own, which can be found here. Arriving and waiting in line to re-title a vehicle on another’s behalf can be a tedious process to begin with, finding out the POA form you have with you isn’t valid might be enough to send anyone over the edge. If the need arises to use this form, simply fill it out without a date and keep in a secure location.
We hope these are helpful as we’re always on the lookout to help find ways, both big and small, to have a positive impact on your financial and emotional security. If you have any quick tips or questions, please feel free to comment below.

Have a great week,

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com/

Making the Most of Tax Time

This is not a favorite time of year for most of us, because wading through all the paperwork needed to prepare our taxes can be a headache. But if you have to gather up all the information anyway, you might as well use it as an opportunity to improve your financial situation. Here are some ideas:

• Mortgage Interest Deduction - Look at the year-end summary report you received from your mortgage company and see what you still owe on your house and your current interest rate. The national average for a 30 year fixed rate is 4.96%, and some banks here in Cincinnati are offering even lower rates. If you have a mortgage over 6% you should seriously consider refinancing and locking in a lower rate while they are still at historical lows.

• Real Estate Tax Deduction - Chris Carleton mentioned it in her March 9th blog, Taking Advantage of a Decline in Your Home’s Value, but it’s worth mentioning again. Even if you have your home paid off, real estate taxes will continue to be a major housing expense for you, so having your house reassessed after the housing downturn might be worth it. You won’t be able to make the March 31st deadline for this year, but we can help you if you’d like to file for a reduction for next year.

• Interest and Dividend Income - Do you receive 1099-INTs from a variety of banks and brokerage companies? Do you have brokerage accounts that you set up with the intention of doing some investing on your own, but haven’t taken the time? You should hold three to six months of living expenses in very liquid investments in case of emergencies, but more than that and you are missing the opportunity to maximize your income. Consider consolidating these accounts to simplify your life and maximize your interest. You’ll thank yourself next year.

• Charitable Contributions – Do you give money to a wide variety of charities each year? Look at your average giving over a period of years, and consider setting up a donor-advised fund for future gifts. The large deduction in the year you set up the fund will have a much greater tax impact; and you can involve your children or grandchildren in your gifting decisions to pass along charitable family values. In Cincinnati, we have great resources such as the Greater Cincinnati Foundation, where you can establish a donor-advised fund with a $25,000 contribution, and the West Chester Community Foundation.

• College Planning with a Deduction – It felt like it took forever to pay off our college loans when we were first married, so my husband and I want to help our grandson with his college expenses. By setting up a 529 account, we can help him and get a deduction up to $2,000 on our Ohio income tax return. If you want to help a young person with college, this is a great way to do it.

We can’t make the work of filing your taxes go away, but we can help implement one of these ideas. If you would like to know more, please give one of us a call.

Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com/

Clueless

(from Dan Solin's Huffington Post blog, 2/8/2011 - click here for the original post)

I'm sure Pat Dorsey is highly intelligent and very competent. He is the director of equity research for Morningstar, which is a big job that gives him access to vast resources about the stock and bond markets. As he noted in an article published January 17, 2010 in Money Magazine's Investor's Guide 2010 entitled "10 stocks that can keep running," the analysts he works with at Morningstar cover 2000 stocks. Wow.

With such an impressive background and extensive resources, I am sure many investors paid close attention to Mr. Dorsey's 2010 predictions about stock market trends.

His primary observation was that we were in the "first phase of a bull market" where "smaller and junkier stocks tend to lead the way." However, he confidently predicted that "...speculative frenzy eventually gives way to the fundamentals, and that should bring your focus back to high-quality blue-chip stocks this year."

He was very negative on "lower-quality small stocks" noting they could "get killed if reality falls short of high expectations."

Many investors no doubt dumped their small stocks and focused on blue chips. After all, Mr.
Dorsey is the director of equity research at Morningstar. Presumably he can accurately predict whether large or small stocks will outperform in a given year.

Not exactly.

In a thoughtful analysis not available to the investing public, Weston J. Wellington, vice president of Dimensional Fund Advisors noted that US small stocks had their best year since 2003. The S&P Small Cap 600 index was up 26.31%, compared to an increase of 15.06% in the S&P 500.

It gets worse.

Wellington did an analysis of the ten blue chip stocks recommended by Mr. Dorsey and found they had an average return of 6.3% , significantly under-performing the S&P 500 index.

Let' see if I got this right.

Mr. Dorsey was dead wrong in his prediction that blue-chips would outperform small stocks in 2010. His selection of blue-chips did not come close to the returns that were yours for the taking by investing in the comparable index.

Yet investors continue to rely on the financial media which features pundits of all stripes, confidently predicting the direction of the markets and advising you to buy this or that stock.

It's all errant nonsense, akin to voodoo, designed to separate you from your money and to continue the transfer of wealth from you to those who "manage" your money.

Mr. Dorsey, and his colleagues who pretend to be able to predict random, future events, may be clueless.

You don't have to be.

The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

The Trouble with Talking Performance

One of the first things we’re often asked in meeting with prospective clients is for performance data. We fully expect the question and often know it is coming. The marketing efforts of the traditional brokerage model and the financial media have conditioned us to think it’s the only thing that matters. The only problem is, they’re wrong.

We often reject the initial request for performance data as we don’t want it to cloud the decision making process for the prospective client in selecting a partner to help them plan their financial future. If someone goes into a financial planning relationship using portfolio performance as their only or even primary scorecard, it likely doesn’t make sense to even begin the conversation. We’re insistent that clients consider their comfort level with the investment philosophy, planning expectations, and overall personality fit long before secondary issues such as performance.

We don’t deny that performance is important, we just know that we have no control over it nor does anyone else. Let me rephrase that, the only control we have over a portfolio is to make sure it’s as globally diverse and low cost as possible and that it is properly allocated for a client’s needs and risk tolerance. Beyond that, seeking higher performance or constantly tweaking our investment philosophy based on market gurus, economic prediction or other forecasting is simply a waste of time and money.

This doesn’t mean we’re not proud of how our philosophy performs. As many know, our portfolios utilize funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors, one of the top-performing fund companies in the country, currently managing more than $202 billion. Some thoughts worth passing along were found in Jessica Toonkel’s December 20, 2010 Investment News article,

“Of the 39 DFA funds with 10-year histories, 33 were in the top half of performance in their categories for that period as of Nov. 18, according to Morningstar. More than half (30) of the 51 funds with five-year histories outperformed their categories for that period - not a small feat, given the market downturn of 2008. In fact, 34 of 58 DFA funds were in the top half of their category just in 2008. And the firm has some of the lowest fees in the industry – with fund expenses ranging from 0.16% to 0.9%.”

The truth of the matter is, in any time frame, about half the people “win” and half the people “lose”. Picking who those people will be in advance is impossible. The middle of that road is the average market return, but the term "average" is a bit of a misnomer. Average return does not an average investor make. The average investor, over the long run in most any time period, earns well below average market returns. If you can earn close to what the market earns at the lowest possible cost and have the discipline to stay invested through thick and thin, you will likely enjoy a very successful investment experience over a 30-40 year retirement horizon.

We don’t really earn our money by providing our client’s with excellent performance. We earn our money by keeping the focus on what they can control; staying invested, being accountable to a sensible spending plan and helping address all the other financial questions that come up on life’s path. If we can do that, our clients will continue to meet their goals.

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
http://taaginc.com

The Tipping Point?

Why does it seem like it takes someone’s death for the world to realize the value of their message? Michael Jackson’s Thriller is on track to be the first album in U.S. history to go triple diamond, selling more than 30 million copies. The estates of Marilyn Monroe and Elvis Presley have made millions more in the year’s since these stars have died. Although The Investment Answer was released last summer, it was only after author Gordon Murray’s passing in January that the media has been buzzing about his book. The Investment Answer, co-authored by DFA (Dimensional Fund Advisors) advisor Daniel Goldie and his client Mr. Murray, a Wall Street veteran, is now #2 on the New York Times Hardcover and Advice List. The hour it will take you to read this book is worth every minute.

When I began my career over 20 years ago, stock picking was the name of the game and the public didn’t want to hear that gurus with crystal balls didn’t exist. Now that index funds are mainstream and many gurus have been exposed for having no more accuracy than the flip of a coin, America is finally ready to hear the message that The Investment Answer conveys; there five key decisions that will help increase the odds of investing success.

- Should I invest on my own or seek help from an investment professional?

- How should I allocate my investments among stocks, bonds, and cash?

- Which specific asset classes within these broad categories should I include in my portfolio?

- Should I take an actively managed approach to investing, or follow a passive alternative?

- When should I sell assets and when should I buy more?

Although we’ve mentioned the book in previous blog posts and monthly letters, I thought it was worth another blog. It’s very exciting for me to see the momentum this book is gaining. On Amazon, you are limited to ordering only three copies of the book and our local Barnes and Noble had only one in stock because they are selling so quickly. In the past few years books like The Big Short or No One Would Listen, which read like fiction, but were written about what went wrong on Wall Street during the financial crisis, have garnered reader’s attention. Finally - a best seller featuring sensible investment advice!

I can only hope that this snowball continues and the general public embraces the message of The Investment Answer, which is that investing success is achievable for everyone and that sophistication does not equal success. It’s just too bad it took Gordon Murray’s illness and passing to get most people to listen.

Christine L. Carleton, CFP®
clcarleton@taaginc.com
http://taaginc.com/

The Danger of Stock Market Forecasts

(from Carl Richard's New York Times' Bucks blog, 1/10/2011 - click here for the original post)

Carl Richards is a certified financial planner in Park City, Utah. His sketches are archived here on the Bucks blog, and other drawings are available on his personal Web site, BehaviorGap.com.

January marks the time of year where gurus come out of the woodwork with their stock market forecasts.

I thought it would be valuable to review a few of them and try to understand what they might mean to real people investing in the real world. I’ll cover two recent forecasts and one from a few months ago, too.

Let’s begin with Robert Prechter. In July, 2010, he said that based on his version of something called the Elliott Wave principle, “the Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end.” Since then, the Dow has been up sharply.

Then we have Robert Shiller of Yale. He recently put his price target for the Standard &Poor’s 500-stock index at 1,430. (At this writing, the index is currently about 1,280.) Before you get too excited, note that Mr. Shiller says that his prediction is for 2020. That works out to less than a 1.5 percent increase a year for the next decade!

Finally, there’s Laszlo Birinyi. According to a recent Bloomberg Businessweek article, Mr. Birinyi believes the S.&P. can hit 2,854. And in an amazing display of precision, he predicts this will happen on Sept. 4, 2013.

So there we have it. Three market gurus with three wildly divergent forecasts that were all covered and reported by reputable, mainstream news outlets.

What’s a real investor to think or do?

The problem with gurus and their guesses is not that they’re always wrong. Part of what makes these forecasts so tempting is that the gurus are right just often enough for us to believe that there’s merit in listening. Unfortunately, it’s incredibly difficult to identify which forecast will be right.

So what does a real person do with this information? I suggest you use it as kindling, as a starting point. I know it’s fun to chat with friends or colleagues about your opinion of the stock market. I also know it can feel like the duty of any self-respecting American to have an opinion about the market and the economy.

Having an opinion is fine. But acting on it with real money is often incredibly damaging. To move beyond opinion you can start by doing the following:

• Realize that investing is a means to an end and not the end in and of itself. Take the time to define the end (your goals), and realize that good investment decisions are only made within the context of your life.
• Once you define your goals, figure out what it will take to get you there. Part of that will obviously include a rate of return that you need to achieve. If that rate of return is unrealistic, then make adjustments to your goals. For example, you can try to save more, you can spend less or you can delay goals like retirement.
• Once you have a realistic set of goals, build the most conservative investment strategy you can to get you there.

You need to realize that no one can tell you with any sense of precision where the stock market (or any market) is going. If you’ve learned nothing else during the last 10 years, I hope you remember that the stock market won’t perform in a set way indefinitely. At some point the market will go down, and it may be for a long period of time.

Just as likely, the market will often go up a lot over a long period. So for the real investors who are investing real money in the real world, take note that you should build your investment strategy around your life and your goals and not the annual guesses of gurus.

Resolutions - Part I

Brad Steinman, Director of the Canadian arm of Dimensional Fund Advisors, offered up 10 important investment resolutions to start off the new year. Brad’s goal was to warn investors away from “ill-advised practices that are detrimental to their wealth” and hopes that “a set of New Year’s Investment resolutions, along with an advisor capable of helping investors adhere to them, will lead to a more prosperous future.”

Rather than rattle them off in what would be a rather lengthy blog post, we’ve decided to take a few resolutions at a time and provide some commentary on each periodically over the next several weeks.

Resolution #1: I will not confuse entertainment with advice. I will acknowledge that the financial media is in the entertainment business and their message can compromise my long-term focus and discipline, leading me to make poor investment decisions. If necessary I will turn off CNBC and turn on ESPN.

TAAG Thoughts: This is a topic we’ve covered at length in this space. There’s no question that what once passed as tabloid journalism has become “the news” across all fronts. Be it Jim Cramer, Brett Favre or the Kardashians, it can be difficult to differentiate between the evening news, CNBC and TMZ. The line between entertainment and information has been severely blurred if not erased altogether. We fully agree with Mr. Steinman that the best media to listen to when it comes to long term investment strategies is no media whatsoever.

Resolution #2: I will stop searching for tomorrow's star money manager, as there are no gurus. Capitalism will be my guru because with capitalism there is a positive expected return on capital, and it is there for the taking. And for me to succeed, someone else doesn't have to fail.

TAAG Thoughts: This touches on several of our firms core values, most notably the notion that gurus, much like the media, are to be ignored. Those who “get it right” are impossible to identify in advance, rarely repeat their success and the actual return investors receive in chasing these soothsayers after the fact pales in comparison to the returns as advertised. For more on the obstacles and dangers related to this manner of investing, see Dan Solin’s blog from last year.

The thoughts on capitalism and the long term expected return on capital ring true as well. In the long term, the only bet an investor needs to place is that the companies of the world will continue to grow. There will be lots of bumps in the road, some wild successes and some companies that cease to be, but, in the long run, the world will continue to develop new innovations and grow its collective balance sheet as it always has. You can participate in that growth by holding a globally diversified portfolio that seeks not to beat or outthink a market that, in the short term, will almost always disappoint.

These resolutions may seem like simple ideas, but we see time and time again that it is so easy to get caught up in the media hype or the promise of something out there that will allow investors to hit that home run without taking the required risk. Neither is an accurate depiction of real life or where our expectations should lie when it comes to our portfolios.
We hope you enjoy these and the other resolutions to come.

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com

Shifting to Savings in 2011

As we enter the last week of the year, we hope that all of you are enjoying the holiday season. This week is one of reflection and resolution for the year to come, and for many that includes a somewhat uneasy scan of the December credit card statement to see how much damage was done over the holidays.

There will be countless articles out there in the coming week with suggestions on how to trim the coming year’s budget. To add to those, we’ve compiled a few of the more unique ways to eke out a little more value from your day to day life that we’ve seen over the last few months. Heading into 2011 seemed as good a time as any to walk through a few of them . . .

End of Year Giving

• Problem: You feel charitable and enjoy giving to those causes that are important to you, but have no idea how much you gave, who you gave to and how any of it fits into your budget throughout the year.

• Solution: Be more strategic in your giving. This is not a suggestion to give less, just more efficiently. Sit down now and determine a budget for next year’s giving, divide those resources amongst those causes that are most important to you and give accordingly. Make sure to leave room for other opportunities that move you to add to your circle of giving through the year.

Coinstar

• Problem: You have a mountain of change scattered in various jugs, piggy banks and containers throughout the house. You’d like to put it to use, but who has time to sprawl out on the floor and roll up piles of change? You could go to a Coinstar, one of those little green boxes at the grocery store, but you’ve heard (correctly) that it’s one of the biggest rip-offs out there, charging somewhere in the 10% range for this convenience.

• Solution: Were there items on your Christmas list that you didn’t receive? Did you receive a new iPod and need to beef up your music collection on iTunes? Are you tired of cooking for family and friends and need a night out? Use your loose change to treat yourself. See, Coinstar machines also give you the ability to purchase gift cards at retailers from Lowe’s to Gap to Starbucks and the retailers pick up the fee on your behalf. In fact, now through the end of the year, they’ll kick in an extra $10 for every $40 in change that you process, so grab those coins and pay for that morning cup of coffee for the first few months of the year!

Auto Loans

• Problem: There are great interest rates being offered on auto loans, but you’re in the middle of paying off your current loan and have no plans to buy a new car anytime soon. Have you missed the boat on these great rates?

• Solution: With rates near historic lows, refinancing your car loan may be worth considering. The short term nature of these loans has meant that you need a substantial rate reduction to make the process worthwhile. But, with rates as low as 4.5% on used cars at small banks and credit unions in the area, relatively substantial savings are possible if you have a higher-rate loan. It’s important to note that the refinancing process on an auto loan is much easier than a typical home refinance and can often be done in one visit to the bank.

Gas

• Problem: Did I just see gas for $3.05/gallon?

• Solution: Maximize the benefits of grocery store loyalty programs or your warehouse club membership. Many of us rack up points on a weekly basis at our local grocery stores or have memberships to Costco, Sam’s Club or other warehouse clubs that give us access to discounted fuel. The problem is, when it comes time to fill up, we’re as far away from those discounts as could be. The solution is to be a little more conscientious when you fill up. Time fill ups to trips to the grocery or the warehouse club. For example, if you use a Kroger card and spend $400 in a month on groceries, you can save 40 cents per gallon. On a 25-gallon fill-up that’s $10 back in your pocket.

These may not be cure-all savings tips, but they are a good start in putting your money to work for you and maximizing your budget in 2011. Starting off the year with a plan and the right mindset can do wonders for achieving greater peace of mind.

Much like any resolution, don’t fall into the trap of trying to do too much. When we overwhelm ourselves with choices, we typically wind up doing the same thing…nothing.

From all of us at The Asset Advisory Group, have a very safe & Happy New Year!

The Asset Advisory Group
www.taaginc.com

New Index Returns Astound Wall Street

(from Dan Solin's Huffington Post blog, 12/7/2010 - click here for the original post)

It's hard to be modest about this achievement, but I am going to try.

In January, 2010, I created the Solin Random Stock Index (SRSI). For those skeptics who want to verify this claim, please see this blog I wrote at the time.

I wish I could report that my index was a complex algorithm, but it was really very simple. I just took the spelling of my last name, and punched each letter into a quote engine. I selected the first two stocks (listed on a U.S. stock exchange) that appeared for each letter. Here's the list of ten stocks that comprised the SRSI:

1. Sprint Nextel (S)
2. Sirius XM Radio (SIRI)
3. Realty Income (O)
4. Oracle (ORCL)
5. Loews (L)
6. Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
7. Intel (INTC)
8. International Business Machines (IBM)
9. Netsuite (N)
10. Nvidia (NVDA)

Now that we are coming to the end of the year, I thought this would be a good time to see how the stocks in my index have performed. I know my competitors are busy getting the performance data of their funds together so they can show how well they did. Morningstar will be analyzing this information in order to figure out which funds get the highest "star" ratings.
Investors rely on performance history. High performing funds can expect an influx of revenues. More revenues means more fees. It's a high stakes game. I want a piece of it.

So, how did the SRSI do from January, 2010 through November, 2010? Hold on to your hat. It's up an astounding 45.14%! No kidding.

The S&P 500 is only up 5.87%.

Let's put this stellar performance in perspective so you can really appreciate it. In an article published February 24, 2010, US News recommended its top mutual funds for 2010. It's methodology was impressive. It relied on "some of the brightest minds conducting investing analysis" and used ratings from Morningstar, Lipper, Zacks, TheStreet.com and Standard & Poor's.

Hard to see how you could miss if you followed these recommendations.

Let's compare some of these top funds with the SRSI. The performance data is as of October 31, 2010.

The Yackman Fund (YACKX) is up 9.07%. It was the top ranked Large Value Fund;
The FMI Large Cap Fund (FMIHX) is up 5.15% It was the top ranked Large Blend Fund;
The Parnassus Workplace fund (PARWX) was up 8.35%. It was the top ranked Large Growth Fund.

The SRSI clobbered the returns of all these top rated funds. I didn't have access to any of the "brightest minds" who do sophisticated analysis and I don't even have a subscription to any of these ratings services.

So what can I expect next? I assume invitations from the cable financial shows so that I can educate investors on how I did it. Maybe all those impressive ratings services will start to follow the SRSI. If I was set up to receive funds, I assume I would have to brace for a massive influx. I would wear "back office problems" as a badge of honor.

My real goal is to win Morningstar's Fund Manager of Year award. Bruce Berkowitz was the pick for U.S. stock-fund manager in 2009 for his stellar performance running Fairholme Fund (FAIRX). His fund has $10 billion in assets. Mr. Berkowitz is a highly regarded stock picker, holding only about 20 stocks. The SRSI holds 10 stocks, so we have the over-concentration thing in common.

Fairholme is only up 12.96%. Clearly, my stock picking skills are vastly superior. It should be no contest for 2010. I'm a shoo-in.

I'll still have time to write this blog. I really enjoy it. But I suspect that being known as a "stock picking guru" will have its perks as well.

Sorry, I have to run now. The phone is ringing. I'm hoping it's Jim Cramer. Maybe he will anoint me as "one of the great ones in this business", an accolade he is reported to have bestowed on

Lenny Dykstra, the ball player turned stock picker.

Dykstra filed for bankruptcy in July, 2009.

I'm no Lenny Dykstra.

The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

Holiday Stuff

For those of us that celebrate and haven’t realized it yet, Christmas is about 2 ½ weeks away. Up until yesterday, I was completely in the dark on this, and I know I’m not alone. Didn’t I just carve a turkey last week? Didn’t the pool just close a few weeks before that? Maybe they changed the date this year.

Saturday, my family participated in our annual drive out to the country in search of this year’s Christmas tree. Yes, we pass several tree farms on the way and countless tree lots, but it’s something we truly enjoy every year. Some light snowfall and a great stock of trees made this year’s trip that much richer.

Sunday brought another favorite tradition, lunch with Santa Claus. For my four year old, when Santa walks in the room, time stops. Clifford, Curious George and Sid the Science Kid (think Clooney, Roberts or Hanks for the uninitiated) could appear in the flesh and she wouldn’t take her eyes off the big man for a second. She spent close to a month preparing her list and planning the precise words she’d say. When she arrived in St. Nick’s lap, she just stared and smiled. We finally had to approach her and remind her of some of the things she hopes to find under the tree.

I don’t want to make this too much of the clichéd “remember what’s important this time of year” blog, but I’m afraid that’s exactly where I’m headed. I won’t pretend this will be the year we all admit that the gifts are truly unnecessary and just another way to fill the basement, attic, or storage unit with more Stuff (it deserves a capital S these days). There’s little that can be done to stop the precious moments captured this weekend from being quickly replaced by mad dashes to various stores, outlets and kiosks all to make sure every “i” is dotted and “t” is crossed. But, much like financial planning, small incremental improvements and regular reminders about which of our goals are truly important can have a dramatic impact in shifting our focus in the long term.

In the meantime, I hope this reaches you all early enough in the season to take it to heart. Truly enjoy the experiences you have with your family, friends and others around you. Worry less about the Stuff and more about the moment. When thinking of unique gifts, give the gift of time, whether it’s dinner and a play, a sporting event or some other outing, the experiences we share with those we care about truly do make the best gifts of all. There is no whatzit, whirligig or doohickey that could possibly bring as much joy.

For my last blog of 2010, I mostly just want to wish you all a very happy holiday season and best wishes for health, happiness and balance throughout the year. We appreciate you taking the time to read the blog and hope that, at least on occasion, the topics discussed provide real value, whether financial, health related or just as a good time to reflect for you and those around you.

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com

Time for a Reality Check

(from Dan Solin's Huffington Post blog, 10/28/2010 - click here for the original post)

As year-end approaches, this seems like a good time for a reality check.

On October 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its all time high of 14,164. At that level, it had gained 94% over the preceding five years. The euphoria of the bulls was palpable.

On March 9, 2009, the index reached a new twelve-year low, closing at 6,547. The bears became the talk of Wall Street. Doom was in the air.

How you dealt with your investments during this period is indicative of everything that is wrong with the securities industry and why you need to fundamentally change the way you invest.

Few brokers predicted the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Almost no one predicted both the meltdown and rapid recovery of the markets. Yet more than 90% of individual investors maintain brokerage accounts and rely on the flawed advice of their "investment professionals."

What if you didn't panic and did nothing from October 9, 2007 to date? I call it the Seinfeld approach to investing. You were in a globally diversified portfolio of low cost index or passively managed funds in an asset allocation (the division of your portfolio between stocks and bonds) appropriate for your tolerance for risk and investment objectives.

As of September 30, 2010, if your allocation to stocks was 50%, your portfolio has fully recovered. Investors with with an allocation of less than 50% to stocks have positive returns. If you were among the small percent of investors for whom an allocation of 100% stocks was appropriate, your total return is down almost 20%.

Check your portfolio returns. How do those results compare? Most likely, not well if you were listening to the financial pundits and "fled to safety" when the market crashed.

Almost all clients of brokers invest in actively managed funds, where the fund manager attempts to "beat the market." The use of these funds is another reason why investors typically underperform the market. If there is one compelling reason for terminating your relationship with your broker, it's the fact that recommendations of actively managed mutual funds are the way brokers make a living.

In a recent blog, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, two of the most distinguished Professors of Finance in the country, explained the folly of investing in actively managed funds. They concluded that, when you factor luck into the equation, they expect 97% of actively managed funds to underperform a passive alternative.

Their conclusion is consistent with other studies that have shown over 99% of active fund managers have no genuine stock picking ability.

If your personal reality check persuades you to enter the New Year with a new investing approach, don't necessarily assume you can do it yourself. Studies over a 30 year period show that even those who pursue an indexing strategy on their own fail to capture 100% of market returns. They still do far better than investors in actively managed funds, but their failure to rebalance their portfolios and the lack of discipline to stay the course when times get rough, take a heavy toll.

A competent passive advisor, who focuses on your asset allocation and recommends investments only in index funds, passively managed funds or Exchange Traded Funds, can be a wise investment.

Preventing Identity Theft & Fraud

I recently had the priviliege of hearing Detective Jim Kelley of the Blue Ash Police Department give a presentation on preventing identity theft and fraud. There was great information shared in the session and well worth passing along in this week’s blog.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was how little most of the tips had to do with computer and internet security. That’s certainly something we’ll touch on, but in this rapidly growing digital age, it seems the easiest targets for crooks continue to be your mailbox, your phone and your garbage can. Yes, dumpster diving is alive and well in the world of fraud.

Some of the top tips from the sessions . . .

1. Buy a Shredder
Detective Kelley said that if he could buy each and every home in this country a gift, it would be a simple shredder. He recommends that any piece of mail, receipts or any other document that we are disposing of get shredded. Criminals are more than happy to root through your trash cans for any information that might help them. If your trash is full of shredded documents, they’re much more likely to move on to the next victim.

2. Mind Your Mailbox
Putting outgoing mail in your mailbox and putting up the red flag doesn’t just get the attention of the mailman. It’s also a literal “red flag” that you have mail with potentially sensitive information ready to steal. Whenever possible, use an alternative method to send any outgoing mail, especially when personal information is involved.

3. Hang Up
The older we are, the more likely we’re a part of a generation that was taught to be polite on the phone. This, however, was likely when the home phone was a tool for communicating with friends, neighbors and family and not a sales tool for every scam under the sun. Detective Kelley stressed to not be too polite to just hang up on stranger or unknown callers. Your bank, credit card company or other trusted institution will never ask for your account information or personal data over the phone unless you’ve called them to resolve an issue and are asking to verify your identity. If you think the call might be legitimate, hang up and call a number that you know connects you with the right entity to confirm.

4. Be Diligent
One of the biggest things criminals bank on is that you’ll be as lazy as they are. You need to be diligent in your affairs. Go over bank and credit card statements when they come to make sure nothing fishy is on the statement. It doesn’t require hours of time or a fine-tooth comb, just a basic review to make sure everything is legitimate. The same goes for your credit report. Visit http://www.annualcreditreport.com/ to review your free credit report and check for any potential errors. You’re entitled to one free report from each of the three major credit bureaus, so set up a reminder every four months to do this today.

5. Don’t Trust E-mail
Yes, your computer is still a concern, too. Use virus protection software and be diligent in what you do online. Be especially careful with your e-mail. More and more, your e-mail contact list is the prime target. If you get a strange e-mail from a known friend or family member’s address asking for money or encouraging you to click on a link that seems out of character, just hit delete. Detective Kelley gave examples of dear friends sending an e-mail that they’re overseas, mugged and desperately need money wired, or the famous lottery that you’ve won that you just need to send a check to cover the taxes. These sound like obvious scams, but those that wish to separate you from your money will continue to get more and more sophisticated in how they go about reaching out to their victims.

6. Quick Tips
- Soak your prescription bottles and peel off the labels and shred. Labels carry a lot of personal information, and you don’t want a potential burglar to know that you’re using Ambien on a nightly basis.
- Use gel pens exclusively to write checks to avoid a fraud known as “check washing”.
- Keep personal information locked up and out of reach if you have cleaning people, home health care or other services in the home where subcontractors might be used from time to time.
- Carry around only what you need on a day to day basis. There is almost never a reason to carry your social security card, little used credit cards or other information besides the basics.

7. Listen to the Experts
Detective Kelley provided excellent information from the National Crime Prevention Council. They have a well-done brochure called “Preventing Identity Theft: A Guide for Consumers”.

The bottom line is there is still no such thing as a free lunch. No one out there wants to give you money for nothing and there’s no reason for you to send anybody money so that they can send you more money. Be vigilant, take the necessary precautions within reason and when something seems too good to be true, take a pass. If there’s any question of legitimacy when it comes to these issues, don’t be ashamed or have too much pride to ask for help. If you have been victimized in some way, report it quickly. Especially when it comes to credit card fraud, if you don’t report it quickly after discovering the discrepancy, you could be liable for the loss. Call the bank, credit card or other company first, then the authorities.

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com/