Whatever Happened to the Hindenburg ?
September was an excellent month for US stock market returns – the S&P 500 index was up 9.92% - the best September since 1939. October hasn’t been too bad either, with the S&P up over 3% for the month-to-date. Small company stocks have fared even better. We are constantly telling you not to focus on the short-term performance of the market, so why am I bringing it up now?
Well, based on the Hindenburg Omen we were supposed to experience a “market meltdown” in the month of September.
Jim Miekka, the author of a stock market newsletter, created a technical indicator he calls the “Hindenburg Omen.” It combines various technical indicators tracking moving averages and the number of issues setting new fifty-two-week highs and lows. The Omen allegedly flashed a “sell” signal on August 12th, and the internet was buzzing on Friday the 13th about the looming disaster in the stock market. We received a few phone calls and emails from clients who had been alerted to the warning by friends, and wondered if they should be concerned. Obviously, people are still shaken by the market events of 2007 and 2008. If they had followed Mr. Miekka’s advice, and sold out of their US funds on August 13, they would have missed 9% plus gains in their large US company funds and over 15% in their small company funds as of Friday, October 22nd. Now they would be worrying about when they should get back in.
There are hundreds of stock market trading models and many more newsletters that sell advice to investors, but none have been consistently successful. Professor Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, and one of the earliest advisors to the DFA funds, learned this early in his career. One of his first jobs was to conduct research on timing indicators for the publisher of a market newsletter. As a statistics whiz, he had no trouble coming up with technical signals that did very well in predicting market moves. Unfortunately for fans of timing models, he also found that they only worked on past data, and none of them continued to work once he identified them.
Predictions based on models will be made every day. Some might even be right, but as the saying goes, even a stopped clock is right two times a day. Why is it that the newspapers and TV shows rarely revisit the predictions that were made to acknowledge whether they were right or not? Mr. Miekka, whatever happened to the Hindenburg?
Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
The Essential Problem
When we sit down with someone nearing retirement, we address what we refer to as “the essential problem” which is ensuring they do not run out of money before they run out of life. For the average 62 year old couple who does not smoke, at least one spouse will live to the age of 92. That means you need to plan for at least a thirty year retirement. This is one instance where being above average literally doesn’t pay. Every additional year that you live the cost of everything you need to buy increases. But that doesn’t mean you need to put Dr. Kevorkian on your speed dial or hope that you don’t live to be 100.
Given these facts, your retirement goal should be to safely draw an income from your investments that will rise through time at a pace equal to these increasing costs. This will allow you to maintain your lifestyle and sustain your dignity and independence during your retirement.
Sounds easy enough, right? Unfortunately, as the name implies, a fixed income strategy will not work. This includes investing exclusively in things such as bonds, cash, CD’s and fixed annuities. If you invest only in fixed income, the problem is not if you will run out of money but when will you run out of money.
The only asset classes that have always kept up with rising living costs over a 30 year period are equities – small and large companies both in the United States and abroad. There was a 48-year stretch from 1941 -1989 where Long Term Government Bonds did not keep up with inflation, while the S&P 500 outpaced inflation by 7.1% annually.
But, knowing where to invest your money won’t necessarily make you a successful investor. Staying disciplined will. If history is any guide, nearly 4 years in 5, the values of the great companies in America and the world will go up; at least once every 5 years, they will temporarily go down and scare nearly everyone out of them.
The easy part of our job is helping you to pick the best mix of stocks and bonds to meet your lifelong income needs. However, where we provide the most value to our clients is not predicting the direction of the economy or the stock market, but keeping them from panicking when the next bear market arrives.
Christine L. Carleton, CFP®
clcarleton@taaginc.com
http://taaginc.com/
Given these facts, your retirement goal should be to safely draw an income from your investments that will rise through time at a pace equal to these increasing costs. This will allow you to maintain your lifestyle and sustain your dignity and independence during your retirement.
Sounds easy enough, right? Unfortunately, as the name implies, a fixed income strategy will not work. This includes investing exclusively in things such as bonds, cash, CD’s and fixed annuities. If you invest only in fixed income, the problem is not if you will run out of money but when will you run out of money.
The only asset classes that have always kept up with rising living costs over a 30 year period are equities – small and large companies both in the United States and abroad. There was a 48-year stretch from 1941 -1989 where Long Term Government Bonds did not keep up with inflation, while the S&P 500 outpaced inflation by 7.1% annually.
But, knowing where to invest your money won’t necessarily make you a successful investor. Staying disciplined will. If history is any guide, nearly 4 years in 5, the values of the great companies in America and the world will go up; at least once every 5 years, they will temporarily go down and scare nearly everyone out of them.
The easy part of our job is helping you to pick the best mix of stocks and bonds to meet your lifelong income needs. However, where we provide the most value to our clients is not predicting the direction of the economy or the stock market, but keeping them from panicking when the next bear market arrives.
Christine L. Carleton, CFP®
clcarleton@taaginc.com
http://taaginc.com/
Monday, October 11, 2010
Peeking Behind the Curtain
Peggy Noonan wrote an excellent article in the Wall Street Journal recently framing the coming November elections as a battle between, as she puts it, the enraged and the exhausted.
Part of her argument is that much of the growing distaste for our elected officials on both sides of the aisle stems from the almost constant access to information about the goings on in the government. As Tennessee congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is quoted, “The more they (the public) know, the less they like Washington.”
I won’t begin to suggest that I can sort out our government’s issues, but the availability of information about the recent turmoil in the markets and economy have shed the same light on Wall Street. Investors are learning more and more about how the Wall Street game has been played, and it has not been pretty.
Salespeople posing as advisors pushing products of ever-expanding sophistication that make fantastic promises, but rarely benefit anyone but those very salespeople and the firms they represent. The allure of can’t miss products without an increase in risk has been a powerful tools for these “financial wizards” for decades. But, be it uncovering Madoff-like scams, watching supposedly safe bond funds plummet in value, or finding out that structured products aren’t structured quite as advertised, these too good to be true miracle cures have proven to be just that.
Peeking behind the curtain in Washington and on Wall Street has allowed us to see holes and problems that we may have never seen in the past. It’s always admitting the problem that’s the first step in any recovery. It’s a painful process. These problems have no easy answers and will take tough choices and sacrifice to resolve.
When it comes to Wall Street, we must be more vigilant in seeking out those advisors that truly have our best interests at heart. Who they serve, how they’re compensated and what drives the investment decisions they make should be as transparent to the average investor as possible. The curtain should not just be pulled back, it should be removed altogether.
In seeking the right tools to put a plan in place for our financial future, we must understand that there are no magic answers. The wizard behind the curtain isn’t interested in anything other than counting their own money. Controlling that which we can and adhering strictly to a disciplined plan may not be as exciting as what the wizard is selling, but it won’t leave you exhausted and enraged, either.
Have a great week!
Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com
Part of her argument is that much of the growing distaste for our elected officials on both sides of the aisle stems from the almost constant access to information about the goings on in the government. As Tennessee congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is quoted, “The more they (the public) know, the less they like Washington.”
I won’t begin to suggest that I can sort out our government’s issues, but the availability of information about the recent turmoil in the markets and economy have shed the same light on Wall Street. Investors are learning more and more about how the Wall Street game has been played, and it has not been pretty.
Salespeople posing as advisors pushing products of ever-expanding sophistication that make fantastic promises, but rarely benefit anyone but those very salespeople and the firms they represent. The allure of can’t miss products without an increase in risk has been a powerful tools for these “financial wizards” for decades. But, be it uncovering Madoff-like scams, watching supposedly safe bond funds plummet in value, or finding out that structured products aren’t structured quite as advertised, these too good to be true miracle cures have proven to be just that.
Peeking behind the curtain in Washington and on Wall Street has allowed us to see holes and problems that we may have never seen in the past. It’s always admitting the problem that’s the first step in any recovery. It’s a painful process. These problems have no easy answers and will take tough choices and sacrifice to resolve.
When it comes to Wall Street, we must be more vigilant in seeking out those advisors that truly have our best interests at heart. Who they serve, how they’re compensated and what drives the investment decisions they make should be as transparent to the average investor as possible. The curtain should not just be pulled back, it should be removed altogether.
In seeking the right tools to put a plan in place for our financial future, we must understand that there are no magic answers. The wizard behind the curtain isn’t interested in anything other than counting their own money. Controlling that which we can and adhering strictly to a disciplined plan may not be as exciting as what the wizard is selling, but it won’t leave you exhausted and enraged, either.
Have a great week!
Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com
Monday, October 4, 2010
Too Much Information
When my husband was first diagnosed with cancer I immediately read everything I could on the subject so we could put together a plan to fight it. The information I found was not encouraging.
Three out of ten Stage III melanoma patients do not live to five years, and forty percent of those who do have had a relapse of the disease. Interferon, the primary FDA approved treatment followed after surgery, boosts your survival chances by only 5 – 10%. I was overwhelmed.
I gave myself a break from all the reading, because I realized I was afraid, and this was only reinforcing my worst fears. Belief can alter our observations. Psychologists have identified this as human confirmation bias - a person with a particular belief will only see things as reinforcing their belief, even if another observer would disagree. I was afraid, so regardless of what I read my mind fixated on the information that confirmed my worst fears.
How is this relevant to you?
The last three years have not been kind to investors. You experienced the credit freeze in 2007, the plunge in the market in October 2008 followed by more drops in early 2009. This year we experienced a “flash crash” in May and 15% market correction over the summer. Some financial commentators have said that investors are suffering from a very real case of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, and it will take years, not months, to get over it.
If you are already afraid of what is going to happen to your investments due to US government spending, continued unemployment, or any other negative economic scenario, it is likely you will only see information that reinforces your fear. You will stop being rational. You won’t notice your US real estate fund is up over 19% for the year-to-date, your US small company funds are up over 10%, or your overall investment holdings are up significantly since March of 2009. You filter out what doesn’t match your beliefs.
Too much information can be a bad thing sometimes. I could not see the fact that 7 out of 10 of Stage III melanoma patients are well after five years, and 60% of those patients have not had a relapse. Give yourself a break from all the “information” out there, and maybe you can approach your financial situation later with a much clearer, and less biased, view.
Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com
Three out of ten Stage III melanoma patients do not live to five years, and forty percent of those who do have had a relapse of the disease. Interferon, the primary FDA approved treatment followed after surgery, boosts your survival chances by only 5 – 10%. I was overwhelmed.
I gave myself a break from all the reading, because I realized I was afraid, and this was only reinforcing my worst fears. Belief can alter our observations. Psychologists have identified this as human confirmation bias - a person with a particular belief will only see things as reinforcing their belief, even if another observer would disagree. I was afraid, so regardless of what I read my mind fixated on the information that confirmed my worst fears.
How is this relevant to you?
The last three years have not been kind to investors. You experienced the credit freeze in 2007, the plunge in the market in October 2008 followed by more drops in early 2009. This year we experienced a “flash crash” in May and 15% market correction over the summer. Some financial commentators have said that investors are suffering from a very real case of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, and it will take years, not months, to get over it.
If you are already afraid of what is going to happen to your investments due to US government spending, continued unemployment, or any other negative economic scenario, it is likely you will only see information that reinforces your fear. You will stop being rational. You won’t notice your US real estate fund is up over 19% for the year-to-date, your US small company funds are up over 10%, or your overall investment holdings are up significantly since March of 2009. You filter out what doesn’t match your beliefs.
Too much information can be a bad thing sometimes. I could not see the fact that 7 out of 10 of Stage III melanoma patients are well after five years, and 60% of those patients have not had a relapse. Give yourself a break from all the “information” out there, and maybe you can approach your financial situation later with a much clearer, and less biased, view.
Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com
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