Monday, October 25, 2010

Hindenburg Omen

Whatever Happened to the Hindenburg ?

September was an excellent month for US stock market returns – the S&P 500 index was up 9.92% - the best September since 1939. October hasn’t been too bad either, with the S&P up over 3% for the month-to-date. Small company stocks have fared even better. We are constantly telling you not to focus on the short-term performance of the market, so why am I bringing it up now?

Well, based on the Hindenburg Omen we were supposed to experience a “market meltdown” in the month of September.

Jim Miekka, the author of a stock market newsletter, created a technical indicator he calls the “Hindenburg Omen.” It combines various technical indicators tracking moving averages and the number of issues setting new fifty-two-week highs and lows. The Omen allegedly flashed a “sell” signal on August 12th, and the internet was buzzing on Friday the 13th about the looming disaster in the stock market. We received a few phone calls and emails from clients who had been alerted to the warning by friends, and wondered if they should be concerned. Obviously, people are still shaken by the market events of 2007 and 2008. If they had followed Mr. Miekka’s advice, and sold out of their US funds on August 13, they would have missed 9% plus gains in their large US company funds and over 15% in their small company funds as of Friday, October 22nd. Now they would be worrying about when they should get back in.

There are hundreds of stock market trading models and many more newsletters that sell advice to investors, but none have been consistently successful. Professor Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, and one of the earliest advisors to the DFA funds, learned this early in his career. One of his first jobs was to conduct research on timing indicators for the publisher of a market newsletter. As a statistics whiz, he had no trouble coming up with technical signals that did very well in predicting market moves. Unfortunately for fans of timing models, he also found that they only worked on past data, and none of them continued to work once he identified them.

Predictions based on models will be made every day. Some might even be right, but as the saying goes, even a stopped clock is right two times a day. Why is it that the newspapers and TV shows rarely revisit the predictions that were made to acknowledge whether they were right or not? Mr. Miekka, whatever happened to the Hindenburg?

Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com

Monday, October 18, 2010

The Essential Problem

When we sit down with someone nearing retirement, we address what we refer to as “the essential problem” which is ensuring they do not run out of money before they run out of life. For the average 62 year old couple who does not smoke, at least one spouse will live to the age of 92. That means you need to plan for at least a thirty year retirement. This is one instance where being above average literally doesn’t pay. Every additional year that you live the cost of everything you need to buy increases. But that doesn’t mean you need to put Dr. Kevorkian on your speed dial or hope that you don’t live to be 100.

Given these facts, your retirement goal should be to safely draw an income from your investments that will rise through time at a pace equal to these increasing costs. This will allow you to maintain your lifestyle and sustain your dignity and independence during your retirement.

Sounds easy enough, right? Unfortunately, as the name implies, a fixed income strategy will not work. This includes investing exclusively in things such as bonds, cash, CD’s and fixed annuities. If you invest only in fixed income, the problem is not if you will run out of money but when will you run out of money.

The only asset classes that have always kept up with rising living costs over a 30 year period are equities – small and large companies both in the United States and abroad. There was a 48-year stretch from 1941 -1989 where Long Term Government Bonds did not keep up with inflation, while the S&P 500 outpaced inflation by 7.1% annually.

But, knowing where to invest your money won’t necessarily make you a successful investor. Staying disciplined will. If history is any guide, nearly 4 years in 5, the values of the great companies in America and the world will go up; at least once every 5 years, they will temporarily go down and scare nearly everyone out of them.

The easy part of our job is helping you to pick the best mix of stocks and bonds to meet your lifelong income needs. However, where we provide the most value to our clients is not predicting the direction of the economy or the stock market, but keeping them from panicking when the next bear market arrives.

Christine L. Carleton, CFP®
clcarleton@taaginc.com
http://taaginc.com/

Monday, October 11, 2010

Peeking Behind the Curtain

Peggy Noonan wrote an excellent article in the Wall Street Journal recently framing the coming November elections as a battle between, as she puts it, the enraged and the exhausted.

Part of her argument is that much of the growing distaste for our elected officials on both sides of the aisle stems from the almost constant access to information about the goings on in the government. As Tennessee congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is quoted, “The more they (the public) know, the less they like Washington.”

I won’t begin to suggest that I can sort out our government’s issues, but the availability of information about the recent turmoil in the markets and economy have shed the same light on Wall Street. Investors are learning more and more about how the Wall Street game has been played, and it has not been pretty.

Salespeople posing as advisors pushing products of ever-expanding sophistication that make fantastic promises, but rarely benefit anyone but those very salespeople and the firms they represent. The allure of can’t miss products without an increase in risk has been a powerful tools for these “financial wizards” for decades. But, be it uncovering Madoff-like scams, watching supposedly safe bond funds plummet in value, or finding out that structured products aren’t structured quite as advertised, these too good to be true miracle cures have proven to be just that.

Peeking behind the curtain in Washington and on Wall Street has allowed us to see holes and problems that we may have never seen in the past. It’s always admitting the problem that’s the first step in any recovery. It’s a painful process. These problems have no easy answers and will take tough choices and sacrifice to resolve.

When it comes to Wall Street, we must be more vigilant in seeking out those advisors that truly have our best interests at heart. Who they serve, how they’re compensated and what drives the investment decisions they make should be as transparent to the average investor as possible. The curtain should not just be pulled back, it should be removed altogether.

In seeking the right tools to put a plan in place for our financial future, we must understand that there are no magic answers. The wizard behind the curtain isn’t interested in anything other than counting their own money. Controlling that which we can and adhering strictly to a disciplined plan may not be as exciting as what the wizard is selling, but it won’t leave you exhausted and enraged, either.

Have a great week!

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com

Monday, October 4, 2010

Too Much Information

When my husband was first diagnosed with cancer I immediately read everything I could on the subject so we could put together a plan to fight it. The information I found was not encouraging.

Three out of ten Stage III melanoma patients do not live to five years, and forty percent of those who do have had a relapse of the disease. Interferon, the primary FDA approved treatment followed after surgery, boosts your survival chances by only 5 – 10%. I was overwhelmed.

I gave myself a break from all the reading, because I realized I was afraid, and this was only reinforcing my worst fears. Belief can alter our observations. Psychologists have identified this as human confirmation bias - a person with a particular belief will only see things as reinforcing their belief, even if another observer would disagree. I was afraid, so regardless of what I read my mind fixated on the information that confirmed my worst fears.

How is this relevant to you?

The last three years have not been kind to investors. You experienced the credit freeze in 2007, the plunge in the market in October 2008 followed by more drops in early 2009. This year we experienced a “flash crash” in May and 15% market correction over the summer. Some financial commentators have said that investors are suffering from a very real case of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, and it will take years, not months, to get over it.

If you are already afraid of what is going to happen to your investments due to US government spending, continued unemployment, or any other negative economic scenario, it is likely you will only see information that reinforces your fear. You will stop being rational. You won’t notice your US real estate fund is up over 19% for the year-to-date, your US small company funds are up over 10%, or your overall investment holdings are up significantly since March of 2009. You filter out what doesn’t match your beliefs.

Too much information can be a bad thing sometimes. I could not see the fact that 7 out of 10 of Stage III melanoma patients are well after five years, and 60% of those patients have not had a relapse. Give yourself a break from all the “information” out there, and maybe you can approach your financial situation later with a much clearer, and less biased, view.

Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com

Monday, September 27, 2010

5 Reasons Our Aging Society Doesn't Mean Stock Market Doom

(from Larry Swedroe's Wise Investing blog at CBS's Moneywatch.com, 9/22/2010 - click here to link to the original post)

A significant part of my time at Buckingham Asset Management is spent calming investors down, assuring them that what they’re concerned about is nothing more than noise meant to grab your attention, but has no basis in reality. The following is a recent example.

After reading an article, a client asked: “If 43 percent of Americans working are going to retire in the next decade, what are they going to live on? Are they going to liquidate their holdings in the stock market and, at a minimum, shift more into bonds? Won’t this restrain market growth more than the historical levels?” Here are five reasons why this type of consternation was unwarranted.

Information Isn’t Wisdom
The first thing I pointed out was that the investor should not confuse information with wisdom (information you can use to produce above benchmark returns). It’s only unanticipated events that move markets, not those that are fully anticipated. Think of it this way: If you know something (like a large segment of the population is nearing retirement), it’s a virtual certainty that other investors also have this knowledge and have acted on it. Thus, the expected impact of equity sales by retirees should already be reflected in today’s prices. It’s only if the level of equity sales is greater than expected should there be a negative impact on future equity prices. And, it’s certainly possible that sales will be less than expected or that there will be an unexpected offsetting increase in demand for equities from other sources. If that’s true, all else equal, equity prices would increase.

Conventional Wisdom Is Often Wrong
A second point I raised was that often what one reads (even if it sounds logical and the arguments are persuasive) may still be wrong — as conventional wisdom often is. One of my favorite sayings is “It ain’t what a man doesn’t know that gets him in trouble, but what he knows for sure, but ain’t so.”

The conventional wisdom about the relationship between age and investment allocations is actually wrong. There’s no evidence that investors dramatically reduce equity exposure as they age. As Jim Davis of Dimensional Fund Advisors pointed out in a 2005 article, the evidence actually suggests that investors “accumulate equity positions during their years of greatest earning power and do not dramatically reduce those positions as they enter retirement.”

Will Everyone Retire as Expected?
I also pointed out that it’s certainly possible that people won’t retire as expected. They may decide to continue working. Many people are now working well into what was considered the retirement years. Extending working years reduces the need to draw on portfolio assets.

It’s Not Just About the United States
I next pointed out that the U.S. equity market isn’t solely dependent on U.S. investors. The rapid growth of sovereign wealth funds and rapidly increasing per capita GNP in developing markets could lead to increased demand for U.S. equities from non-U.S. investors. Thus, it’s quite possible that when a U.S. retiree sells, the buyer will be a young software engineer from India or China. Thus, even if U.S. retirees become large net sellers of equities, it doesn’t mean valuations will be negatively impacted. There might be offsetting increases in demand from other sources.

The Savings Rate Has Been Climbing
In the most recent decade, one of the biggest concerns of policy makers was the very low rate of savings in the U.S., as the rate was so low that it was in danger of dropping below zero. The financial crisis has caused investors to reevaluate their savings patterns. Today, the savings rate is around 6 percent. And in the 1980s, the savings rate was around 10 percent. A rising savings rate could translate into an increased demand for equities.

The bottom line is this: Because today’s market valuation is based on all that is knowable about the future, it’s likely that currently unforeseeable events will have a far greater impact on prices than anticipated demographic shifts. And because what we don’t know is by definition unforecastable, the biggest impact on equity markets will likely come from events that few (if any) even have on their radar screens.

Thus, you’re best served by ignoring market forecasts and focusing on what you can actually control:

- Your risk level
- How well you’re diversified (eliminating or minimizing the diversifiable risks
of single companies, sectors and countries)
- Your costs
- Your tax efficiency

And finally, the fact that future returns are likely to be impacted by events that are not forecastable is why investors have historically demanded a large premium for taking the risks of equities. It’s also why equities are risky no matter how long your investment horizon.

Monday, September 20, 2010

What Do We Do?

Some of us here were involved in an interesting presentation last week on left versus right-brained thinking. We learned that, as advisors, we tend to spend quite a bit of time on the left side of the brain, which is driven by logic, numbers and data. The right side of the brain, on the other hand, is the emotional side, where pictures get painted, goals are envisioned and, most importantly, where decisions get made. This got us thinking about how we define what we do and, more importantly, how we communicate this to our clients and those trusted advisors with whom we work.

Our ultimate goal as fiduciary advisors is to provide for our clients’ financial and emotional security through comprehensive financial planning and investment management. That statement means a lot to us and, in theory, does an excellent job of summing up what we do. That said, it is a fairly left-brained concept that does not always translate well. While it makes sense that most of our time with clients is spent on the left side of the brain, using data and other logic to set a path with our clients towards their goals, it is the right side of the brain where our clients imagine those goals.

So, with our admittedly left-brain leaning ways, can we paint a better picture of what we do?

What we do is aim to understand our clients’ life goals and help them build a plan. This plan provides a clear path to achieving those goals, leaving our clients free to live their lives as envisioned, knowing the financial components of those life goals are in the hands of someone they trust and know to always act in their best interests.

We will continue to be analytical and fairly left-brained when it comes to what we do, but will strive to communicate with the right brain in mind as well. We will continue to make recommendations on investments, insurance, retirement and estate planning, but do understand that these are merely tools our clients use to help their families, protect their lifestyles, achieve comfort in retirement and build some kind of legacy for the future.

We encourage our clients and trusted advisors who read this blog to help us in furthering this definition. What do you value in what we do? How do you perceive our role as it pertains to you or your clients’ goals? What do you expect from an advisor in general? Use the comment button below to start the conversation and thanks, as always, for taking the time to read the blog.

Chip Workman, CFP®
cworkman@taaginc.com
www.taaginc.com

Monday, September 13, 2010

Necessary Losses

On August 24th my husband and I learned he has Stage III melanoma. Gregg is what some people might call a “health freak” who has exercised nearly every day of his life since grade school, ingests a diet of organic fruits and vegetables, and uses sunscreen religiously. He has done everything within his power to maintain a healthy body; but we have learned, along with many other things over the past few weeks, there are things you can’t control, and DNA is one of them.

My way of coping with bad news is to try to obtain as much information as possible about it, and then determine a plan to deal with it. Unfortunately, the more I read about Stage III melanoma, the more discouraged I became. So I turned to a book, Necessary Losses, by Judith Viorst, to help me cope. In her book, she discusses the many illusions, dependencies and impossible expectations that all of us have to give up in order to grow as individuals. As I read, I recognized that I have been stuck in an illusion she describes as “omnipotent guilt, which rests on the illusion of control – the illusion, for example, that we have absolute power over our loved ones’ well-being. And so, if they suffer or fail or fall ill, we have no doubt that we are to blame, that had we done it differently, or had done it better, we surely would have been able to prevent it.” I know I have felt this way many times. Ironically, this illusion is probably why I became a financial advisor, and why I take my relationships with my clients so personally. Making sure that all the clients of our firm remain emotionally and financially secure has always felt like my life-purpose, not a job.

I’m a CPA and Gregg is an engineer by training, so I am sure we will both be struggling with the issue of control as we deal with his cancer. But instead of being frustrated by the things we cannot control, we have decided to focus on those we can. We are learning about expert doctors and clinics in the field, making sure that Gregg is getting the best treatment possible, and continuing to help him stay healthy, so his body can fight it.

We are also focused on the positive. We are thankful for the gift of meeting each other when we were so young, being happily married for over 30 years and enjoying and appreciating each sweet day of life. I hope you remember to do the same.

Jeannette A. Jones, CPA, CFP®
jjones@taaginc.com
http://www.taaginc.com